From 5 to 7 October, the European real estate industry meets again for Expo Real 2026 at the Munich trade fair grounds. According to the organiser, last year’s fair counted around 42,000 participants from more than 70 countries and 1,742 exhibitors from 34 nations. For the retail real estate sector these are three days in which more conversations take place than in an average quarter. What matters is less who exhibits than what is actually being negotiated. Four topics will dominate this year’s conversations, and all four can be read from the 2026 half-year figures: the gap between headline and effective rent, the re-letting of large units, the continued demand from international brands, and price discovery in the investment market.
1. Headline rents are talked about, effective rents are negotiated
The prime rents in the top locations of Germany’s A-cities still stand at around 250 euros per square metre and have stagnated there for roughly three years, according to a market research analysis from June 2026. The figure looks stable, and that is exactly why it is misleading. It describes the headline rent of the best deal in the best location, not the economic burden of a specific lease.
What has actually moved is the room for negotiation beneath it. According to market researchers, the advertised supply of retail space across Germany has grown by around 33 percent since 2022. Where there is more choice, competition shifts from the contractual rent to the side agreements: rent-free periods, fit-out contributions, stepped rents, shorter initial terms. The contractual rent stays at 250 euros for the market report, while the real cost sits below it.
How large the difference is can be calculated, using the example of a 200-square-metre unit on a ten-year lease: six months rent-free and a fit-out contribution of 150,000 euros push a headline rent of 250 euros per square metre down to an effective rent of around 231 euros, a discount of roughly 7.5 percent that never appears in any market statistic. Anyone discussing rent levels in Munich should clarify which of the two figures is meant. We have broken down the method in a separate article on effective rent in retail.
2. Re-letting is the topic no statistic captures
At first glance, the 2026 half-year figures contradict each other. One of the major half-year surveys reports take-up of 238,000 square metres for the first half and places it above the average since 2020 of around 228,000 square metres. Another shows, for the same period, a 13 percent decline in take-up compared with the previous half-year, with 350 leasing deals, and at the same time reports an increased availability rate of 15.1 percent by floor area, up one percentage point.
Both statements can be true. They measure different things: the market is active, but the activity is concentrated on a shrinking part of the stock. Space gets let where footfall, layout and surroundings are right. What lies beside it stays empty for longer, and that shows up in the availability rate, not in take-up.
For owners this means: the difference between a unit that is re-let in four months and one that stands empty for eighteen is rarely decided by the rent. It is decided by preparation: whether the layout can be divided, whether alternative uses beyond fashion have been examined, whether the marketing started before the previous tenant moved out. This lead time is the real lever, as we described in our article on re-letting and active leasing management.
3. International brands keep searching, but ever more narrowly
Footfall is holding up: in Germany’s 25 busiest shopping streets, Hystreet counted around 183 million visitors in the first half of 2026, down just 0.8 percent on the same period last year. On this basis, international concepts continue to expand across all segments, from everyday formats to luxury.
At the same time, the area these brands consider at all is shrinking. Where several streets once counted as prime, demand today often concentrates on a few hundred metres. That explains why stable prime rents and rising vacancy exist side by side: they are not the same units. Two addresses 300 metres apart can sit in completely different markets, in Munich for instance Kaufingerstraße and Theatinerstraße.
For the conversations at Expo Real 2026 this has a practical consequence. The question “What does the market pay?” is too coarse to be answered. Only statements about a specific address, a specific layout and a specific point in time hold up. Anyone bringing a unit to Munich should have its footfall profile, the current tenant mix in the surroundings and the realistic user group to hand, not just a brochure.
4. The investment market is looking for prices, not products
The German retail investment market reached a transaction volume of 1.9 billion euros in the first half of 2026, a decline of 35 percent on the same period last year, according to the market figures published in early July. The distribution shows where capital is currently going:
- 44 percent into retail warehouses, supermarkets and retail parks
- 26 percent into high-street properties in prime locations
- 16 percent into shopping centres
- 14 percent into other retail properties
The decline is not a demand problem. Geopolitical uncertainty and its effect on consumer sentiment and investment appetite are cited as the causes, leading to more intensive due diligence and longer decision paths. The buyers are there, they just take longer. Accordingly, a full-year volume of around five to six billion euros is considered achievable because the pipeline for the second half is well filled, with single assets, portfolios and large-volume transactions.
That is exactly why the fair’s early-October date is well placed. What is meant to be signed in the fourth quarter is being sounded out now. The conversations in Munich do not decide prices, but they do decide which assets make it onto the shortlist at all. How this dynamic has developed since the start of the year is shown in our analysis of the retail investment market in Q1 2026.
What owners should prepare before Expo Real 2026
Three days of trade fair do not replace a marketing process, but they shorten it considerably, provided the documents are decision-ready. In practice, four points have proved decisive:
- Calculate effective rent, not headline rent. Anyone who knows their own figure negotiates differently, and recognises faster whether an offer from the other side really sits below market level.
- Think of units as divisible. For large units in mid-sized cities there are hardly any occupiers left who take over one to one. A tested subdivision concept widens the pool of prospects considerably.
- Clarify alternative uses in advance. Food service, beauty, health and services are increasingly taking units that would automatically have gone to fashion five years ago. Planning and technical feasibility should be settled before the meeting, not after.
- Document the surroundings. Current tenant mix, footfall trend, announced arrivals and departures nearby: these are the details expansion managers ask about first.
Conclusion
Expo Real 2026 falls in a market phase that cannot be described with a single figure. Prime rents stable, vacancy rising, investment volume sharply down, pipeline full: these findings only contradict each other as long as the market is viewed as a whole. In reality it has split into two segments: a few locations with intact competition for space, and a much larger remainder in which letting demands lead time, concept work and a willingness to compromise. Those who bring specific assets, robust figures and a clear idea of the realistic user group to Munich make use of the three days. Those who ask general market questions get general answers.
UNIQUE RETAIL will be at Expo Real 2026 in Munich on 5 and 6 October. For space to let, assets for sale or upcoming expansion plans, we are arranging meetings now. A short message with the property and your request is all it takes. Request a meeting.
