Executive Summary
The first quarter demonstrates a solid start for retail real estate investment—with fewer mega-deals, but increasing transaction numbers and a clear focus on food-anchored assets.
Germany’s retail investment market got off to a solid start in 2026. Transaction volume for retail real estate in the first quarter ranges between 1.1 and 1.37 billion euros, depending on the research firm. Notable: the number of transactions has increased, while the average deal size has declined. The market is characterized by few large deals—and increasingly, capital flowing toward food-anchored assets.
Transaction Volume: Solid, but Not Spectacular
Leading research firms reported different volumes for Q1 2026: CBRE reported approximately 1.1 billion euros, Colliers 1.2 billion euros, and BNP Paribas Real Estate 1.37 billion euros. Depending on the comparison basis, this represents growth of between 14 and 60 percent compared to the same quarter last year. CBRE recorded growth of 57 percent (Q1 2025: approximately 700 million euros), while Colliers reported plus 14 percent year-over-year. The differences arise from different allocation methods and reporting periods—but the underlying signal is uniform: the market has stabilized. According to BNP Paribas Real Estate, the number of transactions rose to 92, a significant increase from the prior year. Simultaneously, average deal size declined: only three transactions exceeded the 50-million-euro threshold.
Food-Anchored Assets Dominate
Specialty retail centers and supermarkets remain the preferred asset class. CBRE sees their share at approximately 60 percent of total volume, while BNP Paribas Real Estate recorded specialty retail centers at 380 million euros as the strongest segment. Colliers confirms: food-anchored assets continue to dominate. The reasons are structural: food retail offers stable rental income, low volatility, and defensive cash flow profiles. Institutional investors such as insurance companies and pension funds particularly value these characteristics in an environment where interest rate direction remains uncertain.
High Street and Shopping Centers: Selective Recovery
According to BNP Paribas Real Estate, retail properties in prime high street locations accounted for approximately 250 million euros—driven by individual transactions in top locations. The high street is thus not a mass market, but rather a selective field for equity-strong investors. Shopping centers showed 230 million euros in volume (BNP Paribas Real Estate), but activity concentrates on value-add strategies and opportunistic acquisitions. Core investors continue to avoid the segment.
Yields: Stabilization with Signs of Compression
Prime yields for retail properties have stabilized. CBRE reports: food markets approximately 4.75 percent, specialty retail centers approximately 4.60 percent, shopping centers approximately 5.50 percent, high street properties approximately 3.70–3.90 percent. Colliers observes initial signs of yield compression in food-anchored assets—a signal that demand here exceeds supply.
Buyer Structure: German Investors Dominate
Approximately 80 percent of transaction volume was attributable to German buyers (source: BNP Paribas Real Estate). Institutional investors—insurance companies, pension funds, open-ended real estate funds—are particularly active in the food segment. International investors show selective interest, particularly in value-add opportunities within shopping centers.
Outlook: Moderate Growth, Selective Opportunities
Forecasts for the full year 2026 range between 4.5 and 6 billion euros. CBRE expects transaction volume of approximately 5 billion euros, representing growth of 10–15 percent compared to 2025. BNP Paribas Real Estate is most optimistic at up to 6 billion euros. What the data shows: the retail investment market has found its floor. Volume is growing, transaction count is rising, and capital is flowing into the market—only more selectively and in smaller lot sizes.
About the Author
This market report comes from Unique Retail, specialized in commercial real estate and retail investment advisory in Germany.
Methodology
This article is based on an analysis of Q1 2026 investment market reports from leading research firms (CBRE, Colliers, BNP Paribas Real Estate) and supplements core data with editorial commentary and market expertise from commercial real estate advisory.
